The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that Andhra Pradesh is likely to experience higher-than-normal rainfall in August and September, marking the final phase of the ongoing southwest monsoon. In their latest forecast released on Thursday, the IMD indicated that in August, southern coastal regions of AP can expect above-average rainfall, while the northern coastal areas may see normal to below-normal precipitation. Moving into September, the entirety of Andhra Pradesh is projected to receive above-normal rainfall.
Andhra Pradesh witnessed a surplus of 34% in rainfall during July and 14% in June. Anakapalli recorded the highest rainfall percentage in the state at 294.4 mm, which is 95% above the normal rainfall of 151.8 mm. Eluru received 91% above the normal rainfall, measuring 488.6 mm compared to the usual 256.4 mm. Visakhapatnam saw 225 mm of rainfall against the normal 119.9 mm.
In Rayalaseema, several areas experienced below-normal rainfall, with Anantapur district receiving the lowest at 22.3 mm compared to the normal 63.8 mm. Kurnool received 55.1 mm against the normal 96.8 mm, marking a deviation of 43%. YSR district recorded a 43% decrease from the normal rainfall, with 52.3 mm against 91.6 mm.
The southern peninsula saw a 36% increase in rainfall in July, reaching 279.2 mm compared to the average 204.5 mm. Overall, the region has observed 463.1 mm of rainfall this monsoon, exceeding the normal of 365.5 mm by 27%. Nationally, rainfall in August and September is anticipated to be above normal, with the IMD forecasting that the second half of the southwest monsoon season will likely exceed 106% of the long-term average.
While most parts of the country are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, regions in the northeast, adjoining areas of east India, Ladakh, Saurashtra, Kutch, and some isolated pockets of central and peninsular India may see below-normal precipitation. Currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions persist in the equatorial Pacific region, with a likelihood of La Nina developing by the end of August.
Presently, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions prevail over the Indian Ocean. The IMD predicts that India will witness above-normal rainfall in August and September, with a potential shift to favorable La Nina conditions by the end of August. The department’s forecast of increased rainfall indicates a heightened risk of landslides and floods.
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